It is quite obvious that both governments of the US and Iran enjoy this crisis that is leading to a new and unnecessary war. Both governments resort to rhetoric while pretending to seek diplomacy. Iranian government enjoys windfall popularity in the region for defying the US. The arrogant Bush, blinded by the illusion of unlimited power, is now bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq. He keeps falling in the same trap no gambler can avoid. That is to bid higher!
The real issue is, however, a matter of confusion. It is not good guys versus bad ones as Bush so desperately tries to paint it as such, let alone assuming himself to be a good one! No matter who is on what side, it is by all means, a case of good cause versus a bad one. Iran invites all countries to join in its nuclear technology, and tops it up with offering its expertise to other less developed counties. The US fears sharing of “knowledge and expertise on these dangerous technologies”, but has no problem with others, i.e. Pakistan, who did exactly the same. The IAEA is then supposed to ignore its responsibility to help its non-nuclear states to develop the technology for peaceful purposes. This watch dog agency has a better job in helping Bush to favor good guys, and to punish the bad ones!
It looks like Bush underestimated Mullahs’ political abilities. While his illusion kept him out of touch, Mullahs took a win-win issue to ride on. Iran has an inalienable right to pursue peaceful technology. It is the right of a nation to decide its own fate. However, despite the enormous popularity Ahmadinejad enjoys these days, Mullahs main concern is the threat of a regime change publicly called for by western media. That is why Mullahs’ option of making a deal with the US to stop enrichment for a viable commitment to secure their hold on power will never go off the table.
Taking the UN resolution to end the war with Iraq without meeting their own publicized demands is indicative enough of how good Mullahs are in manipulating a crisis without any political risk to their own power base. Therefore, in most likely scenarios, they will survive this crisis coming out even stronger than ever. The question is whether Iran’s inalienable right to a peaceful technology will be compromised. So far Mullahs’ interest and that of the Iranian people, as a proud nation in the world arena, are working fine side by side on this issue.
The US has treated all Moslem countries as second class nuisance colonies to its favored state of Israel for decades. People in the region, regardless of their socio-political point of view, abhor this treatment. Thanks to neo-cons in the states, now the genie is out, and no one can stand a poppet regime anymore; especially when the US stands grotesquely naked with its double talk democracy. And Mullahs are already perceived as the ONLY viable independent regime capable of standing up against the US.
There is a consensus amongst political analysts that the most likely outcome of a war against Iran would be the emergence of more powerful repressive Mullahs. Yet, Bush fanfares the speculation of a military attack. Not because it makes him look like working for Mullahs, but because he has no other choice.
One cannot ignore the fact that it was Bush who actually publicized this to a reality. While similarities are limited only to defiance, Bush was instrumental in making Moqtada Sadr into one of the powerful political figures in the newly formed government in Iraq. Remember, the headlines about the warrant for his arrest. What happened? The arrogant Bush ended up inviting him to the party. That is how desperate Bush is in wheeling and dealing behind the scenes while smiling and talking tough in front of cameras. Not only Mullahs know it better than the silver spoon neo-cons surrounding Bush who actually make such deals, but also they have nothing to lose and a lot to gain in defying the US pressure.
However, despite the media campaign to portrait the so called powerful governments as THE international community; Mullahs enjoy the upper hand in public opinion, because the issue is a good CAUSE. This is in spite of Mullahs having done little or nothing in a political campaign to publicize the overwhelming legal and international interests for the issue. Not only UN resolutions ban any military strike against nuclear sites, but Mullahs are also beneficiaries to the Algiers Accord in which the US is obligated not to intervene in Iranian internal affairs.
An international political awareness campaign will work flawlessly for Mullahs on both counts. It will show the US as a law breaker that is also selective in enforcing international laws and does not hesitate to break the same laws in the process. Even more important, it will show the world that US cannot be trusted in honoring its own agreements. Last, but not least, it will make American people wake up to a new reality in which their constitution is hijacked by neo-cons. US constitution specifically considers foreign treaties as the law of the land. How many constitutional safeguards should be broken before Bush’s tyranny equals Clinton’s personal affair for an impeachment?!
So as long as Mullahs stand against the US interests, they don’t really need an atomic bomb. But as much as they are able to secretly develop the a-bomb, Bush is capable of bombing Iran. Since neither side has meaningful credibility in the world opinion, the rest is simply international politics. However, the resounding voice of the people echoes a long subdued “enough is enough” for American imperialism in the region. The US has a lot at stake in there, but thanks to powerful idiots in the White House, it is not welcomed by even the friendliest allies. It all adds up to a political stand off in which the US has no choice but to deal with Mullahs. Any such deals or lack of it will only translate to securing Mullahs grip to power.
April 26, 2006