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Illusion
When
Ahmadinejad was elected, my good friends decided to analyze
the presidential election in a seminar. I was also invited
for a speech. I knew little, if any, about Ahmadinejad, his
background or his worldview. While extraordinary
propaganda against him --i.e. a hostage taker, etc.--
started even before he took office, I could hardly find
anything of substance to talk about. So I spoke about the
election itself instead. While not too many people attended
that seminar --and it was ended without any particular hard
feelings-- before I knew it, I was also targeted for
innuendo! Those who were blunt enough challenged me for not
having discovered the massive fraud in the election! It
prompted me to write a short article
Hot Air at the time. That was well before Jimmy Carter
indorsed the validity of yet another election where Hamas
won the election.
Later
Hossein Derakhshan –who is apparently missing or
arrested in Iran now—wrote “Democracy’s
Double Standard” for New York Times blaming George W.
Bush for the rise of Ahmadinejad to power. I agreed, adding
my own observation:
After the Fact Fussing in January 2006:
“It is
clear he (Bush) dislikes both the Iranian and Palestinian
elections outcome. But it is only through comparison where
you are disgusted with the double standard: “Contrast the
"don't vote" message that President Bush sent to Iranians to
the one delivered to Iraqis through a major media campaign
and other costly means: "Your destiny is in your own hands.
Disappoint the anti-democracy radicals and go out and
vote." The funny thing is the fact that Bush administration
does not like the Iraqis election outcome either…
I certainly believe Bush administration was well aware of
what was going on in both Iranian presidential and recent
Palestinian elections. Not only Bush is simply too arrogant
to face the reality, but also he enjoys being surrounded by
warmongers and profiteers who do not miss even the most
remote opportunity for creating and/or continued instability
in the region. They are the only ones who enjoy windfall
profit for human lives and misery. In short, they are
looking for violence while giving lip service to peace and
stability.”
Yet, I
was wrong in thinking Ahmadinejad – as a hardliner – was
going to lead us to an inevitable war:
“It
may serve the JUSTICE because Iran has every right to a
peaceful nuclear energy like any other country in the
world. However, this is the most expensive justice a
country may ever gain because it may well lead to World War
III in real terms. If there were a claim of possible
EXISTENCE of WMD in Iraq; this time it is a possible
INTENTION for a country that has fully cooperated with IAEA
in recent years including compliance with additional
protocols that have not been even ratified by the board
yet.”
Now,
about 3 years later, American presidential election is over,
but interested parties eye the upcoming Iranian presidential
Election. Sometimes it is hard to believe how the same hand
of cards are played with the same tactic, let alone
strategy! The very same people who ridiculed Khatami for
his failed so called democratic reforms, are hoping for his
return!
“Khatami,
who served two terms as president from 1997 to 2005, has
emerged as the opposition's best hope. An intense,
behind-the-scenes campaign is under way to persuade him to
run, according to Iranian political figures and analysts.”
http://www.kansascity.com/451/story/948432.html
However,
it is encouraging to note candor:
"We
were critical of Khatami before," the analyst said,
reflecting widespread disillusionment with the former
president's failure to carry out reforms opposed by the
country's conservative Shiite Muslim religious
establishment. "Now we pray he returns."
What is missing in all
this analysis is the component of Iranian electoral voters?
It is true that young, mostly educated, Iranians who eye
western modernity are the core opponents of Ahmadinejad, so
are the better off sections of the Iranian population, i.e.
merchants, even conservative clerics, etc. but it is not
enough. Ahmadinejad has clearly conveyed the message that
these are the very reasons for injustice in Iran. Unlike
Khatami, he humbly attributes any progress to the people and
the will of God, Prophet, and his disciples. While this
street smart strategy fuels the so called SMS mockery of
him, it will help making it difficult for any viable
opponent to defeat him. Face it, a candidate not approved
by the Guardian Council will not have even a chance to
compete anyone. So, it makes little difference for Khamenei
to back one against the other. In my humble opinion,
Khamenei factor is simply a reflection of the poll; the real
poll; not distorted and manufactured data for a pretext to
claim fraud after the fact.
Peace,
Mohamad Purqurian
December 22, 2008 |
